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Quantitative prediction of nonsense-mediated mRNA decay across human genes by genomic language model and large-scale mutational scanning
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Quantitative prediction of nonsense-mediated mRNA decay across human genes by genomic language model and large-scale…

Marcell Veiner, Ignasi Toledano, Guillermo Palou-Márquez +2 more
March 2026
 ·
bioRxiv
 ·
DOI 
10.64898/2026.03.24.714003
94
%
Reproducible
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This paper passed independent validation.
QED's automated review checked the evidence supporting each claim, the statistical methods, and whether the results are reproducible from the data provided.

It ranks in the top 1% of preprints assessed in Genomics this quarter.
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Why this is interesting

By proving that NMD follows quantitative, gene-specific gradients rather than binary rules—through an RNA foundation model and deep mutational scanning across 100+ genes—this work transforms truncating variant interpretation and unlocks rational NMD-directed therapy selection.

QED claims analysis

Summary

Nonsense-mediated mRNA decay operates through quantitative, gene-dependent response curves rather than binary rules, with the classical 50-nucleotide, long-exon, and start-proximal evasion boundaries resolved into graded transitions whose parameters vary systematically across genes and can be accurately predicted by an RNA foundation model trained on large-scale allele-specific expression data, enabling precision classification of disease genes as NMD-aggravated or NMD-ameliorated for therapeutic targeting.

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Main Claim 1 –

NMDetective-AI Predicts NMD Efficiency Near Measurement Reproducibility Limit

Supporting evidence

  • Deep Mutational Scanning Robustly Validates NMD Predictions Across Contexts
Main Claim 2 –

50-nt NMD Rule Is Graded, Gene-Specific Logistic Transition

Supporting evidence

  • Start-Proximal NMD Evasion Varies by Gene with Three Patterns
  • Translation Reinitiation Drives Start-Proximal NMD Evasion via Context Features
  • Local Sequence Context and Readthrough Motifs Modulate NMD Efficiency
Main Claim 3 –

Exon Length and PTC Position Quantitatively Determine Long-Exon NMD Escape

Main Claim 4 –

NMD-Dependent Selection Patterns Prioritize Disease Genes for Therapies

Supporting evidence

  • Selection Classifies Disease Genes as NMD-Aggravated or NMD-Ameliorated
  • Cancer Selection Favors NMD-Triggering in Tumor Suppressors, Opposes in Essential Genes

Abstract

The molecular consequences of protein truncating variants depend strongly on whether their transcripts are eliminated by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD), yet NMD is still predicted largely from a small set of binary positional rules. How individual premature termination codons (PTCs) engage NMD across genes and transcript contexts therefore remains incompletely resolved. Here we integrated endogenous allele-specific PTC expression from large-scale genomic data, mRNA language-model prediction and high-throughput mutational scanning to revisit the rules that govern mammalian NMD. Using allele-specific expression measurements from large human cohorts, we trained NMDetective-AI on ∼14,000 somatic PTCs, and after testing it on ∼1,800 germline PTCs, found that it improves on previous models, with its accuracy approaching the reproducibility of the underlying measurements. We then generated experimental maps of NMD with deep mutational scanning, including ∼450 PTCs nearby the 50-nt penultimate exon boundary, ∼950 engineered PTCs across 9 exon lengths to resolve long-exon escape, and ∼11k PTCs across 139 genes to quantify and refine start-proximal evasion. Our results support the positional logic of mammalian NMD yet show that this logic is implemented quantitatively: the classical rules resolve into graded, gene-dependent response curves whose boundaries are shaped by transcript architecture and modulated by local sequence context. Applying this framework to population, disease and cancer datasets further identifies genes in which NMD is predicted to aggravate or ameliorate the effects of truncating variants, providing a basis for variant interpretation and for prioritizing NMD-directed therapies.

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