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Predicting how perturbations reshape cellular trajectories with PerturbGen
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Predicting how perturbations reshape cellular trajectories with PerturbGen

Kevin Chi Hao Ly, Adib Miraki Feriz, Tomoya Isobe +37 more
March 2026
 ·
bioRxiv
 ·
DOI 
10.64898/2026.03.04.709254
94
%
Reproducible
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Why this is interesting

By predicting how perturbations propagate across cellular trajectories rather than static snapshots, PerturbGen transforms perturbation biology into a temporal discipline, unlocking systematic simulation of differentiation, disease progression, and therapeutic intervention at scale.

QED claims analysis

Summary

PerturbGen, a generative foundation model trained on over 100 million single-cell transcriptomes, predicts how genetic perturbations applied at source cellular states reshape downstream transcriptional programs and cell fate decisions along developmental and disease trajectories. Applied to human immune challenge, hematopoiesis, and skin organoid development, PerturbGen accurately predicts trajectory-dependent perturbation effects including attenuation of downstream inflammatory programs following early IL1B knockout, identification of lineage-specific hematopoietic programs that align with monogenic blood disorder phenotypes, and prioritization of Wnt pathway activation to drive organoid stromal maturation toward in vivo fetal skin-like states.

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Main Claim 1 –

PerturbGen Predicts Target States from Source and Context States

Supporting evidence

  • PerturbGen Outperforms CellOracle for Transcription Factor Knockout Effects
  • Hematopoiesis Perturbation Programs Match Age, Lineage, and Blood Genetics
  • ETV6 Knockout Predictions Match Thrombocytopenia Patient Transcriptomic Signatures
Main Claim 2 –

IL1B Knockout Dampens Downstream Cytokine-Interferon Programs in LPS

Main Claim 3 –

In Silico Screen Identifies GSK3B to Mature Skin Organoid Stroma

Supporting evidence

  • CHIR99021 GSK3β Inhibition Matches In Silico GSK3B Perturbation
  • GSK3β Inhibition Induces Fetal-Like Stroma via Metabolic-Collagen Pathways

Abstract

A major challenge in biology is predicting how cells transition between states over time and how perturbations disrupt these transitions. Understanding such dynamics is critical for identifying interventions that reverse pathological programs or reprogram cells toward desired states. Although recent computational approaches can predict single-cell perturbation responses in silico, they cannot predict responses across dynamic cell trajectories, for example how early perturbations reconfigure later cell states. To address this gap, we introduce PerturbGen, a generative foundation model trained on over 100 million single-cell transcriptomes that predicts perturbation responses along cellular trajectories. PerturbGen predicts how genetic perturbation at source state shapes downstream states, alters gene programs and trajectories across time, for example in differentiation or disease progression. We apply PerturbGen to three newly generated multi-condition human single-cell datasets spanning immune responses, hematopoiesis and skin development. In an in vivo immune challenge, PerturbGen predicts that knocking out an IL1B signal in myeloid cells attenuates later cytokine-interferon programs, with downstream changes consistent with a reversal of IL-1β stimulation signature. In hematopoiesis, anchoring perturbation-induced programs to human genetics enables simulation of monogenic blood disorders, recapitulates established disease-associated biology whilst systematically revealing lineage-specific programs, including in lineages where this was not previously possible. In skin organoids, PerturbGen predicted that Wnt activation enhances stromal differentiation recapitulating the trajectory observed in human prenatal skin, findings that were functionally validated by experimentally activating Wnt signaling. Together, PerturbGen extends modeling of gene perturbations from static to dynamic cellular systems. We envision PerturbGen enabling the creation of in silico, trajectory-aware perturbation atlases and virtual cells across diverse biological scenarios, supporting optimization of disease models and prioritization of candidate molecular interventions for therapeutic discovery.

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