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Dynamic optimization of extrachromosomal DNA copy number drives tumour evolution
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Dynamic optimization of extrachromosomal DNA copy number drives tumour evolution

Aditi Gnanasekar, Shu Zhang, Ellis J. Curtis +11 more
March 2026
 ·
bioRxiv
 ·
DOI 
10.64898/2026.03.20.713026
94
%
Reproducible
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It ranks in the top 1% of preprints assessed in Cancer Biology this quarter.
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Why this is interesting

By establishing that ecDNA governs fitness through a context-dependent, non-monotonic optimum—not simple amplification—this work reframes tumour adaptation as copy number plasticity, directly explaining how ecDNA drives rapid drug resistance and enhanced tumorigenicity.

Author perspective

What is the most important insight, discovery, or finding from your paper that you would like other scientists to know?
“

What determines the optimal copy of ecDNA in a tumor? In this paper, we demonstrate that the optimal ecDNA copy number is determined by the balance between proliferative signals and DNA damage. We show that ecDNA also drives temporal heterogeneity, in which time to next cell division is driven by optimal ecDNA number, and shifts in vivo and in response to micronenvironmental factors to drive resistance.

”
Paul S. Mischel

QED claims analysis

Summary

Extrachromosomal DNA copy number heterogeneity, generated through asymmetric inheritance during mitosis, creates functional diversity in oncogenic signaling and cellular stress that drives tumor evolution through dynamic optimization: cells converge to an optimal middle copy number range that maximizes proliferative fitness under baseline conditions, but rapidly shift to new optimal ranges under drug treatment or in vivo microenvironmental pressures, enabling therapeutic resistance and enhanced tumourigenicity.

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Main Claim 1 –

ecDNA Copy Number Drives Oncogenic and Stress Pathway Heterogeneity

Supporting evidence

  • ecDNA Copy Number Scales EGFR Protein and Akt Signaling
Main Claim 2 –

Intermediate ecDNA Copy Number Maximizes Proliferative Fitness

Supporting evidence

  • Asymmetric ecDNA Inheritance Rapidly Generates Copy Number Heterogeneity
  • Optimal ecDNA Copy Number for Proliferation Generalizes Across Cell Lines
Main Claim 3 –

ecDNA Populations Converge Toward an Optimal Copy Number Range

Supporting evidence

  • Quadratic Fitness Model Predicts ecDNA Copy Number Convergence
Main Claim 4 –

CHK1 Inhibition Selects Lower Optimal ecDNA Copy Number Resistance

Supporting evidence

  • ecDNA Outcompetes HSR When Environmental Optimal Copy Number Shifts

Abstract

Extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA) is common in human cancers and is associated with poor clinical outcomes, yet how ecDNA-driven genetic heterogeneity is translated into functional heterogeneity remains unclear. Using single-cell multiomics sequencing and multiplexed IF-FISH, we show that asymmetric inheritance of ecDNA generates copy number heterogeneity that propagates to gene expression programs, including oncogenic signaling and cellular stress responses. Transgenerational live-cell lineage tracking directly shows that ecDNA heterogeneity arises within only a few cell divisions and modulates daughter cell division timing in a copy number-dependent manner, a property not observed for evenly inherited chromosomal amplicons. We identify an optimal middle ecDNA copy number range that maximizes proliferative fitness at baseline, while drug selection pressure induced by low-dose CHK1 inhibition selects for cells with a new optimal range at low ecDNA copy numbers. These low ecDNA copy number cells pre-exist in the population and can be generated de novo, driving copy number shifts promoting drug resistance. In vivo experiments further demonstrate that shifts toward ecDNA copy numbers that are optimal under the tumour microenvironment enhance tumourigenicity. Together, these findings establish ecDNA copy number plasticity as a central driver of tumour evolution.

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